BUBBLE INDEX

Market overview · v1.0

Not investment advice. Do your own research. Numbers come from public sources and may be delayed, stale, or fail to update. Treat everything here as informational only.

Live status · BUBBLE TERRITORY

The market is bubble territory.

A composite of 10 valuation, leverage, concentration, and speculation indicators. Every metric in this dashboard has been a leading signal of historical bubble peaks. None of them is a timing tool — they describe altitude, not the moment of descent.

This is not investment advice. Do your own research. Numbers come from public sources and may be delayed, stale, or fail to update. Treat everything here as informational only.

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Indicators

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CAPE
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Shiller CAPE Ratio

000
What this measures

Compares today's stock prices to company profits averaged over the last 10 years, adjusted for inflation. A high number means investors are paying a lot for each dollar of earnings — historically that has meant weaker long-run returns.

Cyclically adjusted P/E. Only 1929 and 1999 ever printed higher.

src · Robert Shiller / Yale
MCap / GDP
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Buffett Indicator

000
Safe
<100%
Elevated
100–140%
High
>140%
What this measures

The total value of the US stock market divided by the size of the US economy. If stocks are worth far more than everything the country produces in a year, prices may have run ahead of reality.

Buffett called this "the best single measure of where valuations stand."

src · Wilshire 5000 / BEA
Margin
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FINRA Margin Debt

000
Safe
<$600B
Elevated
$600–850B
High
>$900B
What this measures

How much money investors have borrowed from their brokers to buy stocks. Borrowed money amplifies gains on the way up and forces panic selling on the way down.

Investor leverage at brokerages. Sharp YoY spikes precede every major correction.

src · FINRA
Margin/CIC
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Margin Debt / Currency in Circulation

000
Safe
<30%
Elevated
30–45%
High
>45%
What this measures

Borrowed stock-market money measured against the amount of cash in circulation. It shows whether speculative borrowing is growing faster than the actual money supply — an inflation-proof way to compare today's leverage to past eras.

FINRA margin debt as % of US currency in circulation. Rising ratio = speculative leverage outpacing money supply.

src · FINRA + FRED CURRCIR (derived)
Top 10
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Top 10 Share of S&P 500

000
Safe
<25%
Elevated
25–32%
High
>35%
What this measures

How much of the entire S&P 500 is made up of just its 10 biggest companies. When a handful of stocks carry the index, a stumble by any one of them can drag down everyone's portfolio.

Highest concentration in modern history — beats 1973 Nifty-Fifty and 2000 dot-com.

src · S&P Dow Jones
New 🦄 '26
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Net New Unicorns (2026 YTD)

000
What this measures

How many private startups newly reached a $1B+ valuation this year. A surge usually means easy money and fierce hype around a theme — a classic late-cycle signal.

Companies that joined the Crunchbase Unicorn Board so far in 2026. AI, frontier labs, robotics and defense leading. For scale: the 2021 mania minted ~596 new unicorns, then the bust cut that to ~258 in 2022.

src · Crunchbase News monthly recaps
P/C
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Put/Call Ratio (21d avg)

000
What this measures

Compares bets that stocks will fall (puts) to bets they will rise (calls). A low number means almost everyone is betting on gains, which often shows up near market tops.

Low readings = call-buying frenzy. A classic complacency / euphoria gauge.

src · CBOE
Crypto
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Crypto Total Market Cap

000
What this measures

The combined value of all cryptocurrencies. Crypto is where speculative money goes first, so big swings here often lead or echo risk-taking in the stock market.

Speculative risk-on barometer. Parabolic moves correlate with equity blow-off tops.

src · CoinGecko
Household
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Household Equity Allocation

000
Safe
<30%
Elevated
30–38%
High
>40%
What this measures

The share of ordinary households' financial assets held in stocks. When families are all-in on equities, there is less cash left on the sidelines to push prices higher.

Highest household stock allocation ever recorded (Fed Z.1). Beats 2000 peak.

src · Federal Reserve Z.1