BUBBLE INDEX

Market overview · v1.0

Not investment advice. Do your own research. Numbers come from public sources and may be delayed, stale, or fail to update. Treat everything here as informational only.

Live status · BUBBLE TERRITORY

The market is bubble territory.

A composite of 10 valuation, leverage, concentration, and speculation indicators. Every metric in this dashboard has been a leading signal of historical bubble peaks. None of them is a timing tool — they describe altitude, not the moment of descent.

High
Elevated
Caution
Safe
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Indicators

· 9 / 9
CAPE
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Shiller CAPE Ratio

039
Safe
<22
Elevated
22–30
High
>30

Cyclically adjusted P/E. Only 1929 and 1999 ever printed higher.

src · Robert Shiller / Yale
MCap / GDP
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Buffett Indicator

345
Safe
<100%
Elevated
100–140%
High
>140%

Buffett called this "the best single measure of where valuations stand."

src · Wilshire 5000 / BEA
Margin
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FINRA Margin Debt

118
Safe
<$600B
Elevated
$600–850B
High
>$900B

Investor leverage at brokerages. Sharp YoY spikes precede every major correction.

src · FINRA
Margin/CIC
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Margin Debt / Currency in Circulation

696
Safe
<30%
Elevated
30–45%
High
>45%

FINRA margin debt as % of US currency in circulation. Rising ratio = speculative leverage outpacing money supply.

src · FINRA + FRED CURRCIR (derived)
Top 10
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Top 10 Share of S&P 500

662
Safe
<25%
Elevated
25–32%
High
>35%

Highest concentration in modern history — beats 1973 Nifty-Fifty and 2000 dot-com.

src · S&P Dow Jones
New 🦄 '26
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Net New Unicorns (2026 YTD)

009
Safe
<60
Elevated
60–120
High
>120

Companies that joined the Crunchbase Unicorn Board so far in 2026. AI, frontier labs, robotics and defense leading.

src · Crunchbase News monthly recaps
P/C
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Put/Call Ratio (21d avg)

820

Low readings = call-buying frenzy. A classic complacency / euphoria gauge.

src · CBOE
Crypto
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Crypto Total Market Cap

260

Speculative risk-on barometer. Parabolic moves correlate with equity blow-off tops.

src · CoinGecko
Household
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Household Equity Allocation

423
Safe
<30%
Elevated
30–38%
High
>40%

Highest household stock allocation ever recorded (Fed Z.1). Beats 2000 peak.

src · Federal Reserve Z.1